| 广东省第4、5天分县气温预报及其误差分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李晓娟,李茵茵,温晶.广东省第4、5天分县气温预报及其误差分析[J].广东气象,2011,33(2):4-8. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李晓娟 李茵茵 温晶 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州中心气象台; |
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| 基金项目： | 广东省气象局课题(200513和2008A02)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用欧洲中心数值预报产品,采用完全预报方法(PP法)分季节建立广东省分县第4、5天最高、最低气温预报方程,并进行误差检验和分析.结果表明:误差大小有明显的季节差异,并具有一定的地域分布特点;最低气温的预报效果明显好于最高气温,夏秋季最低气温、夏季最高气温的平均绝对误差均小于2℃,具有较高的参考价值.逐日误差与天气密切相...
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| 关 键 词： | 天气学 分县气温预报 PP法 预报误差 广东 |
County-based Temperature Forecast for Day 4-5 in Guangdong and the Bias Analysis |
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| LI Xiao-juan,LI Yin-yin,WEN Jing.County-based Temperature Forecast for Day 4-5 in Guangdong and the Bias Analysis[J].Journal of Guangdong Meteorology,2011,33(2):4-8. |
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| Authors: | LI Xiao-juan LI Yin-yin WEN Jing |
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| Institution: | LI Xiao-juan,LI Yin-yin,WEN Jing(Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou 510080,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on numerical weather predictions of ECMWF,the forecast equations were established by season with Perfect Prediction Method to predict maximum and minimum temperature prediction for day 4 to 5 in Guangdong.The verification shows that the mean error varied obviously with season and its distribution is associated with the geography.The accuracy of the minimum temperature prediction is significantly higher than that of the maximum.The absolute mean error of the maximum temperature prediction in summer and... |
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| Keywords: | temperature prediction Perfect Prediction Method bias analysis Guangdong Province |
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