阜康棉铃虫发生程度气象条件分析及预报

根据阜康植保站2001—2011年逐年棉铃虫各主要危害代发生程度和同期气象资料,对棉铃虫发生程度和气象要素的关系进行了研究。结果表明:阜康棉铃虫一年发生3代,危害较重的是2、3代;2月地面极端最高温度是影响棉铃虫发生长期趋势的主要因子;影响阜康2、3代棉铃虫发生发展的中短期主要因子为5月中旬、7月中旬、8月中旬平均气温和7月中旬降水量等。建立了2、3代棉铃虫发生等级的长期和中短期气象预测模型,经拟合检验和应用检验,2、3代棉铃虫发生长期趋势预测拟合率为77%和62%,中短期发生趋势拟合率为85%和92%。

Meteorological condition analysis and prediction for occurrence of Bollworm(Heliothis armigera) in FUKang

Based on the climate data and historical data about the accumulative amount of occurrence of the bollworm (Heliothis armigera) which collected by Fukang Plant Protecting Station from 2001 to 2011. We analyzed the relationships between meteorological factors and the degree of bollworm occurrence using the SPSS software. The results showed that the occurrence regularity of bollworm has three generation a year in Fukang, and the second and third generation was more harm. The main factor that affected the long-term of the bollworm occurrence was the extreme high ground temperature during February. The main factors affecting short-medium term of the bollworm occurrence were as follows: the average air temperature in mid May, the average air temperature in mid July, the average air temperature in mid August and the precipitation in mid-July. The correlation model of occurrence degree of the second and third generation of long-term and short-medium term has also been developed. It has high accuracy verified by historical data and application. The fitting rates of the second and third generation in long-term forecast were 77% and 62% respectively, and the fitting rates of the short- medium term were 85% and 92% respectively.