Possible effects of climate change on estuarine nutrient fluxes: a case study in the highly nutrified Schelde estuary (Belgium, The Netherlands)

Global change models predict effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at the continental scale in Europe. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of the possible effect of changing external forcing conditions on the functioning of estuarine ecosystems. In densely populated areas, anthropogenic nutrient enrichment and consequent alteration of nutrient biogeochemical cycles have already had a big impact on these ecosystems. The average yearly discharge of the upper Schelde estuary increased nearly threefold over the period 1996–2000, from 28 m³ s⁻¹ in 1996 to 73 m³ s⁻¹ in 2000. The continuously rising discharge conditions over the five-year period were used as a reference situation for possible future effects of climate on ecological functioning through increase of discharge. At high discharges, nutrient (NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, dissolved silica and PO₄³⁻) concentrations in the tidal fresh- and brackish water showed a decrease of up to 50% while total discharged nutrient loadings increased up to 100%. Opposite effects of increasing discharge on NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻ and dissolved silica concentrations in summer and winter, resulted in the flattening out of seasonal cycles for these nutrients. Under high discharge conditions, silica uptake by diatom communities was lowered. Dissolved silica loadings to the coastal area increased concurrently with total silica loadings upstream. Salt intrusion to the marine parts of the estuary decreased. This resulted in a downstream shift of the salinity gradient, with lower salinity observed near the mouth. As a result, TDIN, NO₃⁻ and dissolved silica concentrations doubled at the mouth of the estuary.