主观概率法在沿江地区铜矿资源总量预测评价中的应用

一、前言主观概率法是矿产资源总量预测的一个重要方法,是一种以地质工作的经验和知识代替客观地质数据进行矿产资源定量评价的方法。该方法是哈里斯于1973年首次提出,并用来对墨西哥北索诺拉地区的潜藏金属作了评价。早在1959年,我国以程裕淇总工程师为首召集了一批地质专家,对全国铁矿资源总量作出过估计,美国则于1976年对全国石油资源作了估算。主观概率法是由多名具有丰富实践经验的地质专家对预测地区的矿产资源量作出估计,专家们必须以概率形式提供预测区内可能出现的矿床数、矿床规模及品位等参数,同时指出可能发现矿床的位置(即划分出成矿远景区),并阐明划分远景区的地质依据。运用蒙特卡洛

Method Of Subjective Probabilities For Total Copper Resources.Prognosis And Assessment Along Yangtze Valley In Anhui Province

Method of subjective probabilities is an important means for total resources prognosis with which the quantitative assessment of mineral resources can be made on the basis of geologists' experience and knowledge instead of on the objective geological data. The first step is to single out prospective metallogenetic districts of different classes in a predicted area by some experienced geological experts with a probabilitic approach to present the data in the form of such parameters as number, size and ore grade of deposits which might occur in the area. And then, one can synthesize the experts' appraisals by means of Monte Carlo's method and the coefficrent of transformation to obtain the data on total mineral resources and their distribution in the area. The Yangtze-valley region in Anhui Province was selected as an area for ore-predicting. Ten experienced geological experts were invited to prognosticate the areal total copper resources. According to the spatial distribution of prognostic reserves, seven prospective (such as Tongling) and six secondary prospective (such as Miaoxi) metallogenetic districts have been recognized, with their distribution approximately in agreement with that of regional geological metallogenetic features and geophysical and geochemical anomalies. The results of prognosis can be taken as a basis for prospective planning and work disposing.