GM（1，1）优化模型在滑坡预测预报中的应用

灰色模型在社会科学、自然科学的许多方面已得到广泛的应用，并取得了一系列重大成果。在斜坡(滑坡)地质灾害研究方面，灰色模型多用于斜坡(滑坡)变形的中长期预测预报，且精度较高；但对滑坡短临预测预报精度较差，甚至不能适用，有待改进。滑坡变形预测预报的实际算例表明，以优化灰色模型背景值为基础的优化GM(1，1)模型。具有对建模结果进行优化的能力，即能用于斜坡变形的中长期预测预报，又能适于滑坡短临预测预报。且都能获得较高的模拟和预测精度。应用传统线性GM(1，1)模型和非线性Verhulst模型进行对比分析，检验了优化GM(1，1)模型的正确性和较广泛的适用性。

Application of GM(1,1) Majorized Model to simulation-forecast of Landslide

Grey system theory is a new cross course by China famous scholar professor DENG Ju_long founded in 1982 . Grey model of the theory was applied extensively and gained a series of significant achievement in natural science and social science. It be used mid_long_term forecasting of slope or landslide and had high accuracy in geologic hazard study. But when themodel be used short_impending slip forecasting ,it's accuracy was relatively poor even not suit ,so it had been much room for improvement. Actual example of slide deformation make known that majorized GM(1,1) model based on majorized grey model ground value had a majorization bility to model results. This majorizant model had not only applied to mid_long_term forecasting of slope deformation, but also suited to short_impending slip forecasting of landslide and had relative high forecasting accuracy. Correctness and extensive application of the majorized GM(1,1) model was examined by contrasting analysis of original linear GM(1,1) model and non_linear Verhulst model. The study not only enriched analysis method of landslide deformation forecasting ,but also had momentous theory and practice significance.