宁波市负氧离子浓度分布与预测模型及其在旅游气象中的应用

利用2010-2011年宁波地区空气负氧离子浓度资料，分析其分布特征及与气象因素的相关性，采用逐步回归方法建立负氧离子浓度预测模型。结果表明：负氧离子浓度有市中心附近低、郊区高的地域分布特征；夜晚到清晨高、白天低，夏季高、冬季低的变化规律。据此可选择在早晨或傍晚空气负氧离子含量高的时候多到远郊污染少、植被茂密、有动态水流的地区旅游，避开冬季空气污染大的雾霾日。空气负氧离子浓度与气温、PM₁₀呈负相关，与相对湿度、雷雨、闪电等正相关，可选择在雷阵雨过后的晴朗天气出行旅游。负氧离子预测模型预报能力较好，预测模型的建立实现了宁波地区空气负氧离子浓度的定量化预报，对旅游气象服务有重要意义。

The distribution of oxygen anion concentration,forecasting model in Ningbo and its application in tourism meteorology

Based on the oxygen anion concentration data from 2010 to 2011 in Ningbo,its distribution and the rela- tionship with meteorological elements were analyzed. A forecasting model of oxygen anion concentration was es- tablished by a stepwise regression analysis method. The results show that the oxygen anion concentration is lower near the urban center and higher at suburb in Ningbo;it is higher at nighttime and in early morning and lower at daytime; it is higher in summer and lower in winter. Therefore it suggests that people should go touring in the early morning or evening at suburb. It is better to avoid fog or haze weather with serious air pollution. The oxygen anion concentration is in a negative correlation with air temperature and PM10, and in a positive correlation with relative humidity, thunderstorm and lightning, so it is better to take a trip on a clear day after thunder shower. The model could quantitatively predict the oxygen anion concentration in Ningbo, which is important to tourism meteorology service.