A Scenario-Based Hydrocarbon Production Forecast for Louisiana |
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Authors: | Mark J Kaiser Yunke Yu |
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Institution: | (1) Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, Energy Coast & Environment Building, Nicholson Extension Drive, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA |
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Abstract: | Conventional oil and gas productions in Louisiana has been in decline for four decades, but in recent years, new technology
and capital investment have opened up a significant new resource play in the Haynesville shale, reversing Louisiana’s gas
production decline. The need for long-term forecasting has become more important for state planning and for facilitating efficient
regulatory development and incentive programs, as the largest oil and gas fields diminish in productivity and the promise
of unconventional resources are realized. The purpose of this article is to present a hydrocarbon production forecast for
Louisiana using disaggregate resource classes and a transparent analytic framework. A field-level evaluation is employed for
producing fields categorized by primary product, resource category, geographic area, and production class. Undiscovered fields
are classified according to conventional and unconventional categories and are modeled using a probabilistic and scenario-based
forecast. The analytic framework is described along with a discussion of the model results and limitations of the analysis.
Louisiana is in the early stages of transitioning to a primarily gas-producing state, and the manner in which the Haynesville
shale develops will play a critical role in deliverability and economic prospects in the future. |
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