陕西宝鸡地区胡家山滑坡风险性评价

在综合分析国内外滑坡风险评价方法的基础上,通过对野外地质灾害的调查、对胡家山滑坡的勘查和岩土物理力学参数的测试分析,利用Geo-slope软件和经验方法对滑坡多级潜在滑面进行稳定性分析、影响范围预测和失稳概率分析,开展了对滑坡在天然状态、10年一遇降雨和50年一遇降雨3种工况条件下的危险性、承灾体易损性分析等,完成了胡家山滑坡风险性评价,探讨了单体滑坡风险评价的技术方法与流程。根据评价结果,胡家山滑坡财产最大风险为113.71万元/年,人口最大风险为0.0648人/年,其人口风险超过了社会可容许的风险标准。因此,应采取加强监测、搬迁避让、适当工程治理等方法进行风险控制,以达到防灾减灾的目的。

Risk assessment of Hujiashan landslide in Baoji area, Shaanxi

This paper studied the risk assessment of Hujiashan landslide by using Geo-slope software and experiential methods, forecasted the affected area, analyzed the unstable probability of the landslide's multiple hidden sliding surfaces according to landslide risk assessment practice both in China and abroad, and made geo-hazards detailed field survey, reconnaissance and analysis of physical and mechanical parameters for samples collected from Hujiashan landslide. Meanwhile, the authors analyzed the landslide hazards and vulnerability of elements at risk under three different conditions: natural state, once-in-ten-years and once-in-fifty-years rainfall state, respectively. On such a basis, the authors completed the Hujiashan landslide risk assessment and discussed the single landslide risk evaluating methods and its work flow. The results indicate that the maximum property risk is 1137100 RMB per year, the maximum people risk is 0.0648 person per year, which is beyond the tolerable risk criterion of the society. Therefore, it is necessary for local governments to strengthen such work as monitoring, relocation of local inhabitants and avoiding risk, and take engineering stabilizing methods for control, avoidance and reduction of risk.