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青海牧区近10年牧草产量变化与气象条件的关系
引用本文:祁如英,李应业,魏永林,赵隆香. 青海牧区近10年牧草产量变化与气象条件的关系[J]. 气象科技, 2011, 39(3): 369-373
作者姓名:祁如英  李应业  魏永林  赵隆香
作者单位:1. 中国气象局成都高原气象研究所开放实验室,成都610071;青海省气候中心,西宁810001
2. 青海省气候中心,西宁,810001
3. 青海省海北牧业气象试验站,西海,810200
4. 青海省西宁市气象局,西宁,810003
基金项目:中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室基金(LPM2008008)资助
摘    要:利用DPS统计中的相关、回归等方法分析近10年青海高原牧区5站点牧草产量变化与气象因子的关系,并建立了牧草产量的气象条件多元回归拟合模型。结果表明:近10年来牧草产量的年最高值河南、甘德总体呈下降趋势,曲麻莱、海北、兴海总体呈上升趋势;5站点牧草产量5月变幅最大为兴海,变幅最小的为海北,6—8月变幅最大的是曲麻莱,变幅最小的是海北;5站点8月牧草产量形成期总体上日照充足,降水除河南阶段性较充沛外,其余受限制,温度除河南在牧草生长季内当光温出现匹配不当时呈负相关外,其余均受限制;气象因子与5站点年最高牧草产量的拟合模式拟合效果较好,均可通过0.01检验。

关 键 词:天然草地  牧草产量  气候  青海牧区
收稿时间:2010-03-03
修稿时间:2010-07-23

Relationship between Herbage Yields and Climate in Pastoral Areas of Qinghai in Recent Decade
Qi Ruying,Li Yingye,Wei Yonglin and Zhao Longxiang. Relationship between Herbage Yields and Climate in Pastoral Areas of Qinghai in Recent Decade[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2011, 39(3): 369-373
Authors:Qi Ruying  Li Yingye  Wei Yonglin  Zhao Longxiang
Affiliation:1 Open Laboratory, Institute of Plateau Meteorology, CMA, Chengdu, Chengdu 610071; 2 Qinghai Provincial Climate Center, Xining 810001;Qinghai Provincial Climate Center, Xining 810001;Haibei Herd Meteorological Experimental Station, Qinghai Province, Xihai 810200;Xining Meteorological Bureau, Xining 810003
Abstract:By use of DPS statistics, regression analysis, and other methods, an analysis is made of the herbage yield changes in the recent 10 years in five sites over the Qinghai Plateau (Henan, Gande, Qumalai, Haibei, and Xinghai) and the relationship between meteorological factors and herbage yields. The simulation results show that: Over the past 10 years, the highest annual herbage production was in Henan, an overall downward trend in Gande, and overall upward trend in Qumalai, Haibei,and Xinghai. In May, the variation amplitude of forage yields was the greatest at Xinghai and least at Haibei in five sites. From June to August, the variation amplitude of forage yields was the greatest at Qumalai, and least at Haibe. In August, during the formation stage of forage yields, there was abundant sunshine and ample rainfall, but the temperature was not high enough in Gande, Qumalai, Haibei, and Xinghai. In Henan, there was negative correlation between light and temperature during the growing season. A good fitting model of meteorological factors and the annual forage yields of the five sites is obtained, with the significance level being greater than 0.01, and the fitting results can be used as references for local livestock farming services.
Keywords:natural pasture   grass yield   climate   pastoral area
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