1961-2009年大同市太阳辐射变化特征及与气象要素的关系

在全球气候变暖背景下，地面接收太阳辐射总量发生改变，探讨自然和人为因素对其影响成为热点。利用线性趋势分析、M-K突变检验和小波分析等方法，分析了1961-2009年大同市地面接收太阳辐射的变化特征，验证地面接收太阳辐射的突变年份和周期变化及未来变化趋势，探讨太阳辐射与相关气象要素的关系。结果表明：近49 a大同市地面接收太阳辐射年平均值为5617.28 MJ/m²，整体呈现明显下降趋势，但2000年后又缓慢上升；大同市地面接收太阳总辐射在1975年发生突变；太阳总辐射的振荡周期为9a，现正处于太阳辐射偏高年份；日照时数逐年递减，地面接收太阳辐射减少，二者呈现显著正相关；降水量在波动中缓慢减少，而地面接收太阳辐射总量减少，二者呈现一定正相关；云量变化逐年减少，但与地面接收太阳辐射相关性不明显，气候的自然因素变化与地面接收太阳辐射的相关性较小。

Variation of solar radiation and its relationship with meteorological elements from 1961 to 2009 in Datong,Shanxi province

Under the background of global warming,the gross radiation intensity on the ground changes obviously,thus the effects of the natural and human factors on solar radiation have become a hot issue.The characteristics of gross radiation intensity on the ground were analyzed from 1961 to 2009 in Datong using methods of a linear regression analysis,a Mann-Kendall test and a wavelet analysis.The abrupt change year,cycle feature and the future change trends of gross radiation intensity on the ground were revealed,and the relationship between solar radiation and meteorological factors was discussed.The results showed that the annual average gross radiation intensity on the ground is 5617.28 MJ/m2 and it is in a significantly declining trend in the whole period from 1961 to 2009.However,it begins to rise slowly after 2000.The mutation of gross radiation intensity on the ground by M-K test occurs in 1975.There is a 9-year cycle for gross radiation intensity in Datong.Now,it is in the year of high solar radiation.The sunshine duration reduces yearly,and gross radiation intensity on the ground decreases,too.Both are in a significantly positive correlation.Precipitation decreases slowly with the fluctuation,so is gross radiation intensity on the ground.Both are also in a positive correlation.Cloud cover reduces yearly,while the correlation with the ground solar radiation is not significant.The correlation between the climatic elements and the ground solar radiation is not significant.