1961—2020年辽宁省暖冬现象气候特征分析

利用1961—2020年辽宁省56个气象站冬季逐日气温数据，根据国家标准《暖冬等级》，以1990—2020年为气候值作为参考，综合采用气候倾向率、IDW、滑动t检验突变分析以及小波分析等方法，分析辽宁省近60 a冬季平均气温的时空变化趋势，单站暖冬及区域暖冬事件的气候变化特征。结果表明：近60 a来辽宁省冬季平均气温以0.3℃/10 a的速率升高，辽宁中部和东部地区变暖趋势最为显著；20世纪90年代前的30 a属于偏冷时段，但增温效应强于后30 a，冬季平均气温在1987年前后出现了明显的由冷转暖的突变，1971年出现了相对较弱的冷暖转变；1988年后逐年单站暖冬事件的发生整体比1961—1987年出现单站暖冬事件明显增多。发生频次较高的地区分布在辽宁中部和东南部地区，为16—20次；近60 a来共有16次区域暖冬事件，21世纪后的20 a内共出现9次区域暖冬事件，占总数的60%；区域暖冬事件以准22 a和2—3 a为振荡周期。

Analysis of the climatic characteristics of warm winter in Liaoning province from 1961 to 2020

Based on the daily temperature in winter from 56 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020 in Liaoning province, the temporal and spatial change in the average temperature and the climatic characteristics of warm winter events at a single station and the region scale were analyzed using climate tendency rate, IDW, sliding t test mutation analysis and wavelet analysis methods.According to the national standards of warm winter, the climate value in 1990-2020 was selected as the reference one.The results show that the average temperature in winter in Liaoning province increases at a rate of 0.3℃ per decade in recent 60 years.The warming trend is most significant in the central and eastern Liaoning province.In the first 30 years of the 1990s, it is a relatively cold period, but its warming effect is stronger than that in the last 30 years.The average temperature in winter shows an obvious abrupt change from cold to warm in around 1987.There is a relatively weak change from cold to warm in 1971.After 1988, the occurrence of warm winter events at a single station increases significantly compared with that in 1961-1987.The high frequency of warming events mainly happens at the central and southeast parts of Liaoning province, with 16-20 warming winter events.There are sixteen times of regional warming winter events in the recent 60 years.In the first 20 years after the 21st century, there are nine times of regional warm winter events, accounting for 60% of the total events.Regional warm winter events oscillate in periods of quasi-22 years and 2-3 years.