1961-2017年江西省晚稻寒露风时空演变特征

利用1961—2017年江西省23个代表站逐日气温资料和1984—2017年14个农业气象观测站晚稻发育期资料，根据晚稻不同发育阶段，采用数理统计方法分析了晚稻寒露风的时空演变特征。结果表明：江西省（简称“赣”）轻度寒露风在9月中旬前出现的频率最高，赣北地区约3 a一遇，赣中地区约10 a三遇，赣南地区约5 a一遇，且由东南向西北呈增多趋势。中度寒露风在9月中旬前出现的频率较低，赣北、赣中约10 a一遇，赣南约20 a一遇；重度寒露风在9月中旬前出现的频率极低，赣中、赣北分别为0.4%和1.2%；中、重度寒露风由南向北呈逐渐增多趋势。轻度寒露风在晚稻幼穗分化到抽穗扬花阶段出现的频率为34.1%，灌浆阶段为26.9%；中度寒露风在晚稻幼穗分化到抽穗扬花阶段出现的频率为7.5%，灌浆阶段为8.0%；重度寒露风对晚稻的影响相对较小，在各发育阶段出现的频率均不到2%。

Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of cold-dew wind on double-cropping late rice in Jiangxi province from 1961 to 2017

Based on the data on the daily temperature of the 23 representative stations from 1961 to 2017 and the growth period of double-cropping late rice of the 14 agricultural meteorological observation stations in Jiangxi province from 1984 to 2017, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of cold-dew wind in different developmental stages of late rice were analyzed using the mathematical-statistical method.The results show that the mild cold-dew wind occurs in the highest frequency before mid-September in Jiangxi province.Specifically, it occurs once every 3 years in northern Jiangxi, three times every 10 years in central Jiangxi, and once every 5 years in south Jiangxi, and its frequency of occurrence increases gradually from southeast to northwest.The frequency of moderate cold-dew wind is relatively lower before mid-September in Jiangxi province and is once every 10 years in northern and central Jiangxi and once every 20 years in south Jiangxi.The frequency of severe cold-dew wind is extremely low before mid-September in Jiangxi province and is 0.4% and 1.2% in central and northern Jiangxi, respectively.Meanwhile, the frequencies of moderate and severe cold-dew wind increase gradually from south to north.The frequencies of mild and moderate cold-dew wind are 34.1% and 7.5% from the panicle differentiation stage to heading and flowering period of late rice and are 26.9% and 8.0% in the grain-filling period, respectively.The severe cold-dew wind has a relatively small effect on late rice and its frequency of occurrence is less than 2% in each developmental period of late rice.