80年代以来华北地区气候和水量变化的分析研究

选用华北地区１９８０￣１９９６年９个水文站点的月流量资料，同时选取该区域４２个气象站的月降水、气温和山高桥公式计算的蒸发资料，利用ＥＯＦ对华北地区缺测的月流量进行插值并对该地区气候变化和水资源的关系进行了分析研究。结果表明，基于ＥＯＦ的插值方法能较好获得月流量缺测值。暖干少水，冷湿多水是８０年代以来华北地区月气候变化的主导类型。冬春暖（冷）则夏湿（干）多（少）水是８０年代以来华北地区年气候变化的主

ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH ON RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CLIMATIC AND RUN-OFF VARIATION SINCE 1980s IN NORTH CHINA

Using the monthly flow (9 stations), precipitation (42 stations), air temperature (42 stations) and evaporation calculated by the Gaoqiao formula from 1980 to 1996 in North China, the unobserved flow values are intercalated and the relationship between the climatic and run off variation is analyzed. The results show that the unobserved monthly flow can be obtained better by the intercalated method based EOF. The warm dry little water and the cold wet much water is main type of monthly climatic variation. Among the types of yearly climatic variation, it is main that there is warmer (colder) last winter and spring and wetter (drier) and much (little) water in summer. The climatic variation has a opposite trend between the south and the north of the North China. The water of the North China comes mainly from its western rain. In recently 17 years, the water is little and climate is drier for most years in North China.