灰色系统在耕地预测中的应用——以芜湖市为例

提高耕地动态变化预测精度是土地规划工作中的一项重要内容。文章利用灰色系统理论的建模思想。根据芜湖市耕地统计资料历史变化特点，分时段建立灰色系统模型来对比分析和筛选。并结合残差辩识来提高预测模型的精度。同时，与一元线性回归模型相比较，验证GM（1，1）模型在耕地变化预测中的精确性与可靠性，并提出运用对比分析与综合分析选择模型的思想来优化GM（1，1）模型，为科学精确地进行耕地预测提供了理论基础。

Application of Grey System on Forecast of Cultivated Land Resources

It is an important content in the land layout for improving the precise of the cultivated land dynamic forecast. Based on the statistic data of cultivated land resources in Wuhu region, using the theory of grey system, this paper builds models pertaining to different period to compare the forecast results. Remainder GM(1,1) model highly improves the precision of forecast. In contrast with unified linear regression model, GM(1,1) model is proved to be more accurate and dependable in forecast of cultivated land resources. The method of selecting model by comparative analysis and synthetical analysis make GM(1.1) better, that provides theoretical basis for forecast of cultivated land resources scientifically and precisely.