The Relationship Between the Amplitude and Descending Time of a Solar Activity Cycle |
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Authors: | Zhanle Du Shouyu Du |
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Affiliation: | (1) National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China;(2) The Middle School Attached To Hebei Teacher’s University, Shijiazhuang, 050011, China |
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Abstract: | The amplitude of a solar-activity cycle is found to be well correlated (r = −0.811) with the descending time three cycles earlier, in smoothed monthly-mean sunspot numbers for Cycles 8 – 23. The descending time therefore can be used as one of the indicators to predict the amplitudes. As a result, the amplitudes of Cycles 24 – 25 are estimated to be 114.8 ± 17.4, 111.6 ± 17.4, respectively, where the error bar equals ± standard error. |
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