Planning of recreational trails in protected areas: Application of regression tree analysis and geographic information systems

One of the most important tasks for managers of many natural protected areas is achieving a balance between conservation of nature and recreational opportunity. This paper presents a framework based on geographic information system (GIS) and regression tree analysis of optimized recreational trail location for flexible, user-defined input parameters. The method utilizes: (1) the GIS to create a database containing field data and existing GIS/cartographic materials; (2) regression tree analysis to establish the relationships between indicators of degradation and environmental and use-related factors for existing trails, as well as to predict trail degradation for potential new trials; (3) least-cost path algorithm within a GIS framework to optimize trail route.The framework was applied to the Gorce National Park in the south of Poland. A large sample (>4500) of the field collected data about degradation of the existing trail network was linked with data about soil, geology, geomorphology and relief, and with information about the type and amount of recreational use. Based on the existing relationship, predicted trail degradation was calculated and routes for two examples of trails (hiking and motorized) were designated. The proposed methodology is objective and quantitative, and can also include knowledge of local stakeholders. The framework has the potential to design new trails (or to re-route old ones), characterized by the best possible solution for recreational and conservation functions to coexist, by routing visitors through trails with the lowest possible impact.