Characterizing the potential distribution of the invasive Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Worcester County,Massachusetts |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Clark University Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, 950 Main St., Worcester, MA 01610, United States;2. Department of International Development, Community, and Environment, Clark University, Worcester, MA 01610, United States;3. Clark Labs, Clark University, Worcester, MA 01610, United States;1. State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry, 1 Forestry Drive, Syracuse, NY 13210, United States;2. United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine, Science and Technology, 1398 W. Truck Rd., Otis Air National Guard Base, Buzzards Bay, MA 02532, United States;1. Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, United States;2. USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station, East Lansing, MI 48823, United States;3. Department of Entomology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, United States;4. USDA ARS, Beneficial Insects Introduction Research Unit, Newark, DE 19713, United States;1. Department of Science, University of Roma Tre, Viale G. Marconi 446, 00146 Rome, Italy;2. NBFC, National Biodiversity Future Center, 90133 Palermo, Italy;3. Department of Agronomy, Food, Natural Resources, Animals and the Environment (DAFNAE), Viale dell’Università 16, Legnaro, 35020 Padova, Italy;4. Department of Entomology, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States;1. Graduate School of Geography, Clark University, 950 Main St., Worcester, MA 01610, USA;2. Pacific Island Ecosystems Research Center, 344 Crater Rim Drive, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, HI 96718, USA;3. Clark Labs, Clark University, 950 Main St., Worcester, MA 01610, USA |
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| Abstract: | The Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) (Anoplophora glabripennis) is an invasive insect pest that has established populations in Worcester County, Massachusetts as of 2008. ALB predominantly targets red maple (Acer rubrum), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), which are prominent in New England hardwood forests, and Norway maple (Acer platanoides), which was planted in built environments as street trees in response to severe weather and invasive insect and pathogen disturbances. Mahalanobis Typicality models related presence locations of ALB presence-only locations in Worcester County towns from 2008 to 2012 to biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic variables to predict the potential distribution of ALB and to determine locations most characteristic of infestation. k-fold cross-validation and a continuous Boyce Index were employed to validate model performance and to identify threshold values at which continuous models of typicality could be reclassified into categorical maps. Distance-to-roads (r2 = 0.19) and probability of maple presence (r2 = 0.13) were the most important predictor variables in the ALB model. Locations that were most consistently susceptible to ALB infestation had significant high maple presence (p < 0.001) and significant low distance-to-roads (p < 0.001) compared to the whole study area, suggesting that ALB in Worcester County, MA, prefers maple-dominant edge habitats at the current stage of invasion. The localized ALB potential distribution model was consistently accurate (Boyce Continuous Index = 0.84) despite the lack of absence locations and incomplete knowledge of ALB niche breadth in both native and invaded ranges. The results from this study could be used as a baseline for effective adaptive management policies that could help prioritize the need for early detection/eradication measures and address the potential ecological and social ramifications of the current ALB outbreak in Worcester County. It is hoped that the model employed could be further tested for future outbreaks as they are discovered in the USA. |
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| Keywords: | Invasive species Asian longhorned beetle Species distribution modeling Mahalanobis typicality Boyce continuous index |
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