三峡库区地质灾害调查评价与监测预警新思维

三峡库区地质灾害的调查、研究、监测和工程防治断续进行了近 40年, 为三峡工程建设和生态地质环境保护做出了重大贡献。近几年的研究和移民工程建设发现, 以往的工作也存在某些局限性, 如落后于社会经济发展的需求, 直接服务于山地民居群落的可持续发展和三峡移民工程建设的针对性、预见性和指导性不足; 综合分析技术方法落后; 区域性规律研究程度较低等。结合作者负责的工作, 本文提出了新一轮三峡库区 (19县、市)地质灾害调查研究的新思维, 即指导思想以保护人类生存环境为中心, 围绕山地民居和移民工程开展工作; 在综合调查基础上, 建立以空间数据库和分层图形库为核心内容的地质灾害信息系统 (GGIS), 采用发育度、风险度和危害度等量化指标作为地质灾害综合评价、区划和监测预警系统布设的依据; 充分利用现代观测与分析技术, 建立基于RS、GPS和GIS以及群测群防体制等构成的监测预警网络系统。最终目标是实现地质环境开发保护的预指导和防灾减灾预警功能。

A NEW THOUGHT OF SURVEYING, EVALUATING, MONITORING AND FORECASTING FOR THE GEOLOGIC HAZARDS IN THE THREE-GORGES ON CHANGJIANG RIVER

It has been nearly 40 years since the surveying, monitoring, studying and controlling on geo hazards had been started in the Three Gorges area on Changjiang River, and it contributed more to the construction of the Three Gorge projects and the protection in ecological geo environment this region. However, it has been found that there were some shortages in previous works in such as less guidance to directly developing the socil economy and to constructing the immigration project, less consideration of ecological environment,and backward techniques. In this paper, the authors suggest a new thought of surveying and studying the geo hazards in the Three Gorges region (include 19 counties and cities),i.e.. The work must be centered at the conservation environment for human existence and settlement of residents migrated from the project area; the modern monitoring techniques and analysis methods must be applied. Basing on the comprehensive survey, we can develop a geo hazards geologic information system (GGIS), which contains digital spatial database and multiplicity of map sets. Some quantitative indexes such as development degree, risk degree and damage degree are used as a base for comprehensive assessment, classifying, monitoring and forecasting geo hazards. Then a monitoring and forecasting net work system consisting of RS, GPS, GGIS and public prevention system . Our top target is to realize the development protection of geo environment and the qsprediction and reduction of geologic hazards.