基于ANP-SWOT模型的城市应急避难场所发展规划——以兰州市为例

合理的规划和建设城市应急避难场所可以增强城市抗灾能力，提高城市灾害韧性，降低灾害带来的人员伤亡和财产损失。在对兰州市应急避难场所的建设现状进行详细调研的基础上，利用ANP-SWOT模型对其发展规划进行分析。首先运用SWOT分析方法确定兰州市应急避难场所未来发展的内部优势和劣势、外部机会和威胁；其次运用ANP分析法构建兰州市应急避难场所发展规划的网络层次结构，结合专家咨询，通过赋值和对比分析确定最佳发展策略。结果显示，分布不均、数量不足、尚未形成专门的应急预案是制约兰州市应急避难场所发展的关键问题；最佳发展策略是加快推进兰州市应急避难场所的标准化规范化。

Development planning of urban emergency shelters based onANP- SWOT model: a case study of Lanzhou City

Reasonable planning and construction of urban emergency shelters can improve the city''s disaster- resisting capability, enhance urban disaster resilience, and reduce casualties and property losses caused by disasters. On the basis of a detailed investigation on the construction status of emergency shelters in Lanzhou, the development planning was analyzed using the ANP- SWOT model. First, the SWOT analysis method was used to determine the internal advantages and disadvantages, external opportunities, and threats of emergency shelters in Lanzhou. Then, the ANP analysis method was adopted to build the network hierarchy of emergency shelters'' development planning in Lanzhou. Finally, combined with expert consultation, the best development strategy was formulated through assignment and comparative analysis. Results show that the key problems restricting the development of emergency shelters in Lanzhou are uneven distribution, insufficient number, and lack of a special emergency plan. The best development strategy is to accelerate the standardization of emergency shelters in Lanzhou.