山东半岛城市群旅游环境承载力综合评价研究

城市群发展已经成为城市竞争向区域协作战略转型的着力点， 但是国内以城市群为载体的旅游业发展与 旅游环境承载能力的相互关系研究相对不足。通过建立旅游环境承载力评价体系， 构造旅游环境可持续承载力测 度模型， 以定量描述区域旅游环境系统的承载潜力及旅游环境可持续承载状况， 提出了旅游环境承载力的量化测 度思路， 同时以山东半岛城市群为研究对象， 对其2000- 2005 年旅游环境承载力及承载状况进行评价和分析， 并采 用灰色预测法对区域旅游环境承载状况进行动态模拟预测， 进而提出改善山东半岛城市群旅游承载状况的区域优 化与调控对策。

Study on Synthesis Evaluation of Tourism Environmental Carrying Capacity of Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration

As the trend of economic globalization and regional economic integration is increasingly apparent and popular,urban agglomerations have become the extremely important and significant parts which participate in regional collaboration in some countries and regions.However,the related research on the connection between the tourism development and tourism environmental carrying capacity of urban agglomerations in china is not enough or extremely deficient at present.To describe quantitatively the potential carrying capacity of tourism environmental system and the sustainable carrying state of tourism environment,and to construct an evaluation system of tourism environmental carrying capacity and a measurement model of tourism environmental sustainable carrying capacity,the paper provides a new idea and method for quantitative study of tourism environmental carrying capacity.Then taking Shandong peninsula urban agglomeration as an example,tourism environmental carrying capacity and carrying state of it from 2000 to 2005 have been studied empirically.At the same time,it applies the grey model to simulate and forecast the regional tourism environmental carrying state from 2006 to 2010.Finally,some optimum and adjustment suggestions to enhance and improve tourism environmental carrying capacity of Shandong peninsula urban agglomeration have been elaborated.