巴拿马运河扩建下的运河通行费博弈

巴拿马运河是世界主要运河之一,其扩建对全球航运市场影响巨大。文章建立竞争博弈模型,以巴拿马运河管理局和苏伊士运河管理局为博弈主体,对巴拿马运河扩建后双方运河通行费的调整策略进行博弈模型分析和赋值仿真。研究表明:巴拿马运河扩建后,巴拿马运河管理局应采取通行费小幅降价的策略,以吸引更多船舶通货量,尽快收回扩建成本;苏伊士运河的航运市场份额将有所缩减,但苏伊士运河管理局仍应维持现有通行费水平;双方以长远利益为目标选择策略,才能获得更高收益。

Canal Tolling Game under the Expansion of Panama Canal

The Panama Canal is one of the world''s major canals and its expansion plays an important role in international container shipping.This paper analyzed the strategy of the canal toll adjustment after the expansion of the Panama Canal,by constructing a competition game model and data simulation,with the Panama Canal Authority and the Suez Canal Authority as the main players.The research showed that the Panama Canal Authority should adopt price reduction strategy to attract more shipping and recover the cost as soon as possible after the expansion of the Panama Canal;the shipping market share of the Suez Canal would be reduced,but the Suez Canal Authority would still maintain the current toll level;the two canal authorities could obtain higher returns by making decision based on the long term interests.