Vulnerability of European reindeer husbandry to global change |
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Authors: | W G Rees F M Stammler F S Danks P Vitebsky |
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Institution: | (1) Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Lensfield Road, Cambridge, CB2 1ER, UK;(2) Present address: Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, PO Box 122, FIN-96101 Rovaniemi, Finland |
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Abstract: | Reindeer husbandry represents a major land use in the Barents region, and has been predicted to be adversely affected by climate
change. This paper considers the likely response of reindeer husbandry to changes both in climate and in socio-economic circumstances
in the four countries of the Barents region from 1990 to 2080. Key natural factors include vegetation distribution, and a
range of meteorological variables including temperature, wind, snow cover and freezing of rivers. The potential impact of
these factors is evaluated quantitatively using the tolerable windows method, the results of which indicate a general but
spatially non-uniform decline in the suitability of the region for reindeer husbandry. Relevant socio-economic factors include
regional patterns of politics, management and knowledge. A focus on herders’ own perceptions of environmental change and flexibility
of response, derived particularly from study sites in Russia, suggests that models of vulnerability to climate change should
be tempered by paying greater attention to changes in socio-economic factors. When compared with the potential effect of changing
these socioeconomic factors, the vulnerability of reindeer husbandry to projected climate change appears to be comparatively
small. |
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