基于未确知测度理论的高速公路交通安全气象影响评价体系

高速公路交通事故的发生与气象因子之间有着密不可分的关系,文中就如何建立气象因子对高速公路交通安全的评价体系做了初步的阐述。通过对杭金衢高速公路2003年开通以来至2005年的事故发生情况与气象因子之间的相关分析,建立了5个依次升高的交通安全气象条件预警等级,在此基础上,引入未确知测度数学理论模型,结合实例分析,介绍了高速公路交通安全气象因子评价指标体系的建立、单指标效果测度函数的构建、指标权重的计算,并根据置信度识别准则进行判断,最终得出当日气象因子对高速公路交通安全影响的评价等级。

Evaluation System of Meteorological Influence on Traffic Safety over Expressway Based on Unascertained Measure Model

The unascertained measure model is a new evaluation method.By using the model,in combination with a case study,the influences of meteorological factors on the traffic safety over expressway are analyzed,and the establishment of the influence assessment index system and the calculation of index weights are discussed through analyzing the experimental results.The identifying criterions of confidence levels are applied to judge the influence grades of meteorological factors on the traffic safety of the expressway.