| 地震可预测性研究的CSEP计划及其启示 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋长胜,赵祎喆.地震可预测性研究的CSEP计划及其启示[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2009,30(5):34-40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋长胜 赵祎喆 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国北京,100081,中国地震局地球物理研究所
2. 中国北京,100080,中国科学院研究生院管理学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目40804010 |
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| 摘 要： | 地震可预测性是当前地震预测预报研究关注的前沿问题，对此问题的关注也代表了地震预测预报研究的现状，即采用更务实的态度、“循序渐进”地研究地震的可预测属性。本文介绍了国际上目前在地震可预测性研究中影响较大的“地震可预测性合作研究”（Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability，CSEP）计划，通过对CSEP计划的历史背景、研究现状和技术特点的介绍，讨论了其对中国地震预测预报研究的可能的启发意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震可预测性 CSEP计划 统计检验 |
Earthquake predictability study: the CSEP project and its significance |
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| Jiang Changsheng,Zhao Yizhe.Earthquake predictability study: the CSEP project and its significance[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2009,30(5):34-40. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Changsheng Zhao Yizhe |
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| Institution: | Jiang Changsheng and Zhao Yizhe(1Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China 2) Management School, Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100080, China) |
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| Abstract: | The earthquake predictability has been regarded as one of the most popular related topics in earthquake forecast/prediction study, and such attention also reflects the status quo and prospect in this field. In this paper, we give a brief introduction on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability （CSEP） project, which is one of the most influential projects on earthquake predictability. The history background, technical characteristics and research progress in CSEP project are worthy of our reference and is enlightening for earthquake prediction/forecast in China. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake predictability CSEP project statistical hypothesis test |
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