| 利用气象与生态要素预测冬小麦产量 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭海英,万信,杨兴国. 利用气象与生态要素预测冬小麦产量[J]. 气象科技, 2008, 36(4): 440-443 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭海英 万信 杨兴国 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾开放实验室甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室;甘肃省西峰农业气象试验站,庆阳,745000;中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾开放实验室甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室;兰州区域气候中心,兰州,730020;中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾开放实验室甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局推广项目，科技部社会公益研究项目，国家自然科学基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 选用对陇东黄土高原塬区冬小麦产量形成至关重要的发育期间光热要素、水分复合因子以及表征冬小麦生长状况的定量因子生长势等气象要素和生态要素,利用多元线性回归方法建立了冬小麦不同生长发育阶段产量预报方程,试预报准确率达到92%以上.该方法改变了利用气象单类要素预报粮食产量的传统观念,为利用生态要素、水分复合因子等综合要素预报粮食产量进行了积极的探索,使数字农业、生态农业气象要素在陇东黄土高原得到有效推广.
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| 关 键 词： | 冬小麦 产量预测 气象要素 水分复合因子 生长势 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-06-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2008-01-12 |
Method for Estimating Winter Wheat Yield with Meteorological and Ecological Factors |
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| Guo Haiying,Wan Xin and Yang Xingguo. Method for Estimating Winter Wheat Yield with Meteorological and Ecological Factors[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2008, 36(4): 440-443 |
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| Authors: | Guo Haiying Wan Xin Yang Xingguo |
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| Abstract: | The yield estimate equation of winter wheat considering different growth stages is established in the multiple linear regression method by means of such meteorological and ecological factors as sunlight and heat, moisture during the essential growth period of winter wheat, which are crucial to the yield formation of winter wheat in the loess plateau area of the eastern Gansu Province, as well as growth potential, a quantitative factor indicative of growing condition. It has an accuracy of over 92% in trial use. Unlike the traditional method of using single meteorological element to predict grain yields, the new method considered ecological factors and moisture, and gained satisfactory results. |
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| Keywords: | winter wheat yield estimate meteorological factor growth potential |
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