May 2003 Disaster in Sri Lanka and Cyclone 01-B in the Bay of Bengal

Heavy rainfall deluged South-Western Sri Lanka between the 11th and19th of May 2003 and led to its worst disaster in 50 years. Floods andlandslides claimed 260 lives. The World Meteorological Organizationcited it as evidence for the increase of anomalous climatic extremes inrecent years. Here, a meteorological analysis is presented of this disasteras part of a sustained effort to undertake meteorological applications fordisaster management. There were intense low-level westerlies over SriLanka related to cyclone 01-B that made its way across the Bay of Bengalat least 700 km away. The southeastwardly traverse of the cyclone wasstalled for a few days by anomalous north-westerly geostrophic windsver South Asia. Here, it is argued that orographic rainfall induced bythis stalled cyclone and seasonal inter-tropical convergence zone cloudbands over Sri Lanka led to the deluge. The trajectory of the cyclone wasremote from Sri Lanka and this led to no cyclone hazard warnings beingissued. No cyclones have made landfall in Sri Lanka in May in the last100 years. This study shows that one must exercise vigilance not only inthe path of the cyclone but also remotely due to the modulation of thecyclone by other atmospheric phenomenon and topographic features.This flood may have been predicted with contemporary local area weatherprediction models and this example points to the need for the developmentof local area weather prediction models as part of disaster warning systems.This study also demonstrates the use of meteorological diagnostics forpost-event analysis of hydrometeorology of disaster events.