Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number |
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Authors: | Robert M. Wilson |
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Affiliation: | (1) Space Science Laboratory, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, 35812 Huntsville, AL, U.S.A. |
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Abstract: | Examined are associational aspects as they relate the maximum amplitude RM for the sunspot cycle to the rate of rise Rt during the ascending phase, where RM is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum and Rt is the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers for selected 6-month intervals (t) measured from cycle onset. One finds that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the latter half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a coefficient of correlation r 0.9 and a standard error Syx 20. During the first four intervals, the expected RM and the observed RM were found to differ by no more than 20 units of smoothed sunspot number only 25, 42, 50, and 58 % of the time; during the latter four intervals, they differed by no more than 20 units 67, 83, 92, and 100% of the time. |
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