Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number |
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Authors: | Robert M Wilson |
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Institution: | (1) Space Science Laboratory, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, 35812 Huntsville, AL, U.S.A. |
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Abstract: | Examined are associational aspects as they relate the maximum amplitude R
M
for the sunspot cycle to the rate of rise R
t
during the ascending phase, where R
M
is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum and R
t
is the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers for selected 6-month intervals ( t) measured from cycle onset. One finds that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the latter half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a coefficient of correlation r 0.9 and a standard error S
yx
20. During the first four intervals, the expected R
M
and the observed R
M
were found to differ by no more than 20 units of smoothed sunspot number only 25, 42, 50, and 58 % of the time; during the latter four intervals, they differed by no more than 20 units 67, 83, 92, and 100% of the time. |
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Keywords: | |
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