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Simulation of Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclones with WRF Model: Impact of Initial and Boundary Conditions
Authors:U C Mohanty  Krishna K Osuri  A Routray  M Mohapatra  Sujata Pattanayak
Institution:1. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences , Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi , New Delhi, India;2. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting , Noida, India;3. India Meteorological Department , New Delhi, India
Abstract:An attempt is made to delineate the relative performances and credentials of GFS, FNL, and NCMRWF global analyses/forecast products as initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) to the WRF-ARW model in the simulation of four Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones (TCs). The results suggest that FNL could simulate horizontal advection of vorticity maxima at 850 hPa; hence, the tracks are more realistic with least errors as compared to GFS and NCMRWF. The mean landfall errors for 24-, 48-, and 72-hour forecasts are 73, 41, and 72 km, respectively. The TC intensity is well captured by NCMRWF IBCs, as it could predict 850 hPa vorticity maxima. The 24-hour accumulated rainfall is well simulated with FNL, and equitable threat score is more than 0.2 up to 100 mm with minimum bias.
Keywords:Tropical cyclone  WRF model  initial and boundary conditions
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