新疆塔河流域洪水量级、频率及峰现时间变化特征、成因及影响

采用塔里木河流域（塔河流域）8个水文站及相应气象站数据,全面分析了洪水发生量级、频率和峰现时间等特征,研究洪水发生成因及其影响。结果表明：1980s中后期塔河流域气温与降水持续增加,整个塔河流域年及季节洪峰流量普遍呈上升趋势,大部分在1980s中后期发生突变。1980s中期以后塔河流域年及季节洪峰流量呈持续增加或者显著增加趋势,量级位于整个观测时期均值之上,处于洪水“丰富”期。“丰富”期暴雨型和升温型洪水发生次数及造成的灾害损失均呈显著增加趋势,引起严重洪灾损失的洪水也集中在这一时期,且多由暴雨型洪水引发。大量级洪水（最大三场洪水及重现期大于10年的洪水）多集中发生在1990年之后,并且易引发多个水文站点同时出现。

Magnitude,frequency and timing of floods in the Tarim River,Xinjiang:Characteristics,causes and impacts

Nine flood indicators have been defined and trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods were predicted using Mann-Kendall trend test method in the Tarim River basin. Moreover, causes behind spatiotemporal variations of floods as well as the impacts of floods on socioeconomy of the Tarim River basin were also investigated. The results indicated that temperature and precipitation increased in the mid- and late 1980s and synchronous amplifications of floods were also identified with similar abrupt floods compared with precipitation and temperature changes. After the mid-1980s, the Tarim River basin experienced periods with frequent floods with evident and persistent increase of flood peak flow. Generally, floods are temperature-induced and rainstorm-induced, significant increase of precipitation extremes is the major driving factor behind rainstorm-induced floods, and increasing temperature is the principal factor behind temperature-induced floods as a result of fast melting of snowpack or glacier. Nevertheless, the floods with the potential to cause loss occurred in a clustering way after the mid-1980s and most of these floods were the results of heavy rain. Furthermore, heavy floods ranked as three record-high floods or floods with return periods more than 10 years usually occurred in similar periods at most of the stations across the basin.