基于CLUE-S模型的辽河流域景观格局空间分布模拟

基于CLUE-S模型,以辽河流域为研究区,利用2000年和2010年两期土地利用数据,采用Logistic逐步回归方程ROC曲线,选择高程、距离、土壤等8种驱动因子,对2010年景观格局进行模拟,并依据2010景观格局、相应的辽河流域土地利用规划,设置3种不同情景,进行2010-2020年景观格局模拟。研究表明：(1)模拟的2010年景观格局,kappa精度达到90%以上,表明CLUE-S模型在辽河流域具有良好的景观格局模拟能力。(2)辽河流域在不同情境下,建设用地均出现不同程度的增加,耕地出现不同程度减少。其中,情景2中,森林有所减少,耕地转化幅度较大,建设用地围绕辽河流域城镇带建设逐步扩展,集中在沈阳、抚顺、鞍山等工业发达城市;情景3中,森林、湿地逐步扩大,表现在东部退耕还林,南部紧靠辽海入口湿地增加。研究结论可为未来辽河流域的生态保护建设及景观格局合理规划提供参考依据。

Landscape Spatial Distribution Modeling Based on CLUE-S Model in the Liaohe Watershed

In this paper, we took the Liaohe watershed as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for the purpose of landscape pattern simulation, based on the land use data in 2000 and 2010. Eight key driving factors were selected in this study, which include elevation, DEM, slope, distance, soil and others. Firstly, the land use data in 2000 was used to simulate the spatial pattern of land use in 2010 for the Liaohe watershed. Based on the＆amp;nbsp;adjusted model parameters, the land use patterns of 2020 were then simulated respectively for the natural in-crease scenario, economic development scenario, and ecological protection scenario. The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached a considerably 90.7%, implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in the Liaohe watershed. In different scenarios, it shows explicitly an increase in urban land and a decrease in cultivated land. Under the economic development scenario, we concluded that：the cultivated land conversion range is the largest;the forest reduction is relatively small;and the construction land surrounding the developing zones of the Liaohe River basin had gradually expanded, which mainly aggregated in Shenyang, Fushun, Anshan and other industrial developed cities. Under the ecological protection scenario, we discovered that the forests and wetlands that located at the mouth of the Liaohe River had gradually increased. This is due to the conversion of farmland into forest in the east region. The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the ecological protection in the Liaohe watershed, the land use planning management, and policy-making in future.