金县短水准预报效能的研究

本文首次给出了金县台人工地震探测的最新结果。论述了跨断层短水准还可开发利用的前兆信息资源,并利用层次合成模型对金县短水准异常信息作了两个层次合成,使其地震预报效能较传统方法有了较大幅度提高,其前兆信息水平约60％、预报地震成功率达54％、地震报准率达72％,说明前兆异常信息的层次合成是提高单台单项目地震预报效能经济而有效的方法之一。

STUDY OF PREDICTION EFFICACY OF LEVELLING AT JIN XIAN

The newest results on artificial seismic detection at Jin Xian station are given in thispaper for the first time. The precursory information of levelling across the fault is able toexploit and utilize further. We use the model of deepening cognition to make synthesis oftwo levels for anomalous information of levelling at Jin Xian. the prediction efficacy is animprovement on traditional method. The level of precursory information is about 60%, therate of success of earthquake prediction is 54%, the rate of accuracy of prediction is 72%.The level synthesis of anomalous information is one of effective methods increasing predic-tion efficacy for single-station and single-item.