Modeling the succession of diatomic complex under growing industrial load on an aquatic ecosystem

Analysis of paleolimnological data on a part of Lake Imandra (Kola Peninsula), polluted by wastewaters discharged from a copper-nickel plant, is used to calculate the vertical profile of toxicity of bottom sediments and determine the response of dominant species of diatomic complex to the growing toxicity. The species are aggregated by the similar responses to the load. The dependence between the population sizes of diatom groups and toxicity is established. The diatom complex is shown to change its structure twice—at the toxicity exceeding the background level by factors of 1.2 and 3.2, respectively. A model is developed to describe variations in the species composition of the community under growing toxicity; the model is shown to be applicable to the analysis of paleolimnological data. General analysis of the model is given, and typical scenarios of variation in the number of species under growing toxic load are described.