| 新疆塔里木河三源流径流量变化趋势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 凌红波,徐海量,张青青,史薇. 新疆塔里木河三源流径流量变化趋势分析[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(6): 728-733. DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.06.728 |
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| 作者姓名： | 凌红波 徐海量 张青青 史薇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011;2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划(No.2009CB421308); 水利部公益性行业科研专项(No.201101049)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用非参数检验、R/S分析和小波分析等方法对塔里木河三源流的年径流序列进行了分析。结果表明:阿克苏河与叶儿羌河的突变点在1993年,而和田河在1978年;阿克苏河径流呈显著增加趋势而叶儿羌河增加不显著,结合其Hurst指数可知,在未来阿克苏河仍将保持增加走势而叶尔羌河将转变为减少;和田河径流呈轻微的减少趋势,其Hurst指数接近于0.5,具有随机性,不可做长程预测;阿克苏河在6、18、22 a周期性明显,和田河主周期为9和17 a,而叶尔羌河在3、9、13和17 a处周期性明显。
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| 关 键 词： | 径流趋势 突变 非参数检验 源流 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-02-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2010-05-25 |
The Annual Runoff Variation Trends in the Three Headstreams of Tarim River |
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| LING Hong-bo,XU Hai-liang,ZHANG Qing-qing,SHI Wei. The Annual Runoff Variation Trends in the Three Headstreams of Tarim River[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2011, 31(6): 728-733. DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.06.728 |
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| Authors: | LING Hong-bo XU Hai-liang ZHANG Qing-qing SHI Wei |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;2. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the observed annual runoff data of 5 hydrological stations in Tarim River headstreams areas from 1957 to 2008,the paper studied the annual trend,abrupt change,periodicity and the coming period trends by use of the nonparametric test,R/S analysis and wavelet analysis and so on.The results showed that:(1) Both Aksu river and Yarkand river of which the jump points happened at 1993 hold significant step change,but Hetian river expressed a slightly decreasing step trend and is not significant;(2)Aksu ri... |
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| Keywords: | runoff trends abrupt change nonparametric test headstreams |
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