A FORM-based approach for probabilistic analysis in geotechnics: Application to a reinforced concrete drainage culvert

As numerical models are increasingly used as a design tool in geotechnical engineering, it is highly desirable if geotechnical reliability analysis can be conducted based on numeral models. Currently, the practical use of geotechnical reliability analysis-based numerical models is still quite limited. In this study, an easy to access method is derived to conduct geotechnical reliability analysis based on numerical models. To facilitate its application, a procedure is outlined to implement the suggested method such that geotechnical reliability analysis can be automated using existing geotechnical numerical packages. The procedure is illustrated in detail with an example, and the source codes provided can be easily adapted to analyze other similar problems. The method described in this paper is used to study the reliability of a deteriorating reinforced concrete drainage culvert in Shanghai, China. The suggested method provides a convenient means for reliability analysis of complex geotechnical problems.