翁文波院士的信息预测理论体系的创新性及其意义

翁文波院士提出的信息预测理论体系是一个具有自主创新的体系.它的创新性表现在下列几个方面：（1）翁先生创造性地提出：认识可划分为三个层次的认识体系：抽象体系、物理体系、信息体系.其中“信息体系”是翁先生第一个提出的；（2）对数据基本性质的新认识，特别是指出自然数、整数在研究和预测中的重要性；（3）翁先生新提出信息预测，它与统计预测有很大不同等等.翁先生的信息预测理论在天灾预测实际中取得了丰硕的成功预测成果.

The creativity of informative forecasting theory and it's significance

Weng Wen-Bo,member of the Board of Chinese Academy of Sciences,suggested the Informational Forecasting Theory(IFT),characterized as a creative system either in science,or in practice.Several main creative features can be summarized as following:(1) Weng Wen-Bo suggested three types of cognitive system: Abstract system,Physical system and Informative system,in which the Informative system was suggested firstly by him;(2) A new view point to view the basic characteristics of data,particularly to indicate the significance of so-called natural number and integer in researches and forecasting of natural events;(3) A new concept "informative forecasting" differed from the "statistical forecasting" has been suggested.The real progress based on the applications of the IFT is the successful improvements in the forecasting of various kinds of natural disasters.