2012年9—11月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

为更好地应用中期数值预报模式产品,对2012年9-11月T639模式120 h预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与EC-MWF、日本模式进行了对比分析.结果表明:3种模式在120 h时效对亚洲中高纬大尺度环流的调整和演变以及转折性、灾害性等重大天气过程均具有较强的预报指示意义.综合来看,ECMWF模式对各影响系统及要素的预报最接近实况；日本模式和T639模式次之；ECMWF模式对1223号热带风暴山神的120 h转向预报较为成功,具有很好的参考价值；只是对于登陆前的偏北分量预报较弱.而T639和日本模式对“山神”的转向预报偏差较大.

Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecasting for T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from September to November 2012

In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639, some synoptic verification on its medium range forecasting in autumn 2012 are made in comparison with the NWP of ECMWF and Japan models. The results show that the three models have good performances in the aspect of predicting the large scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas. As a whole, the ECMWF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models. Taking tropical storm No.1223 (Son Tinh) as an example, it is found that the ECMWF model gets the most reliable results, whereas T639 and JAPAN models have large deviations in forecasting the turning track of Son Tinh.