全球矿产勘探长期趋势

本文分析了1975年以来的全球矿产勘查态势与趋势、世界矿床发现趋势以及全球矿产勘探方法的演进趋势。矿产勘探投入与矿产品国际市场价格关系密切,预测从2012年到2020年,全球固体矿产勘探支出将下降35%。2002～2012年,西方国家有色金属勘探支出增加了8倍,但矿床发现率仅增加了3倍。本文认为,当前全球矿业仍然处于第四个繁荣周期中,但已出现了第一个波谷,主要原因是全球经济的拖累和金融危机后遗症,预计还需4～5年时间才可能探底恢复。

Long Term Outlook for the Global Exploration Industry

This paper covers global trends in mineral exploration spend, exploration methods, discovery rates, discovery costs and discovery performam：e from 1975 to the present. Exploration spend is closely related to mineral commodity prices. From 2012 to 2020, world exploration spend is predicted to drop 35%. Non-ferrous metal exploration spend in the Western world rose by 800% from 2002 to 2012, but at the same time, the mineral deposit discovery rate only rose about 300%. This paper believes that the global mineral exploration industry is still in the process of The Fourth Mining Boom Cycle, but due to the world economic recession and the sequelae of financial crisis, now the first exploration trough has appeared, and the next mineral exploration market sentiment is still need to wait about five years.