GIS-based spatiotemporal analysis of forest fires in Turkey from 2010 to 2020

Forests are essential in contributing to the continuity of the natural balance. Therefore, their protection and sustainability are vital. However, all over the world, forest fires occur, and forests are destroyed due to both human factors and unknown causes. It is necessary to carry out studies to prevent this destruction. At this point, GIS-based location–time relationship-based hot spot clustering analysis can provide significant advantages in detecting risky spots of forest fires. In this study, GIS-based emerging hot spot clustering analysis was carried out to determine the risky areas where forest fires will occur and to carry out preventive studies in the relevant areas. Turkey was chosen as the pilot region, and analyses were carried out using the data obtained from the official statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry General Directorate of Forestry according to the causes of the fires (negligence, intentional, accidental, unknown cause and natural) between the years 2010 and 2020. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted for each fire type, and threshold distances were determined {with a number of distance bands = 20,000, distant increment = 10,000}. Emerging hot spot analyses were then conducted, and the results were presented as maps and statistical outputs. According to all fire types, 15 new hot spots, 14 persistent hot spots, 33 sporadic hot spots, 9 consecutive hot spots, 15 intensifying, and 2 diminishing hot spot regions were obtained throughout the country.