From blackbirds to black holes: Investigating capture-recapture methods for time domain astronomy |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Lowell Center for Space Science and Technology, 600 Suffolk St, Lowell, MA, 01854, USA;2. Department of Physics and Applied Physics, Olney Science Center, University of Massachusetts Lowell, MA, 01854, USA;1. School of Physics and Electronic Engineering, Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong, 643000, China;2. Key Laboratory for the Structure and Evolution of Celestial Objects, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China;1. Konkoly Observatory, Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, H-1121 Budapest, Konkoly Thege Miklós út 15-17, Hungary;2. BSObservatory, Modrá 587, Zlín 760 01, Czech Republic;1. Astrophysics Research Centre and Observatory, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Terzioğlu Kampüsü, Çanakkale TR-17020, Turkey;2. Department of Space Sciences and Technologies, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Terzioğlu Kampüsü, Çanakkale TR-17020, Turkey;3. Department of Physics, University of Johannesburg, PO Box 524, Auckland Park 2006, South Africa;4. Department of Physics, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Terzioğlu Kampüsü, Çanakkale TR-17020, Turkey;5. South African Astronomical Observatory, PO Box 9, Observatory, 7935, South Africa;6. Astrophysics, Cosmology and Gravity Centre, Department of Astronomy, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa;7. Instituut voor Sterrenkunde, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200D, bus 2401, Leuven B-3001, Belgium |
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| Abstract: | In time domain astronomy, recurrent transients present a special problem: how to infer total populations from limited observations. Monitoring observations may give a biassed view of the underlying population due to limitations on observing time, visibility and instrumental sensitivity. A similar problem exists in the life sciences, where animal populations (such as migratory birds) or disease prevalence, must be estimated from sparse and incomplete data. The class of methods termed Capture-Recapture is used to reconstruct population estimates from time-series records of encounters with the study population. This paper investigates the performance of Capture-Recapture methods in astronomy via a series of numerical simulations. The Blackbirds code simulates monitoring of populations of transients, in this case accreting binary stars (neutron star or black hole accreting from a stellar companion) under a range of observing strategies. We first generate realistic light-curves for populations of binaries with contrasting orbital period distributions. These models are then randomly sampled at observing cadences typical of existing and planned monitoring surveys. The classical capture-recapture methods, Lincoln-Peterson, Schnabel estimators, related techniques, and newer methods implemented in the Rcapture package are compared. A general exponential model based on the radioactive decay law is introduced which is demonstrated to recover (at 95% confidence) the underlying population abundance and duty cycle, in a fraction of the observing visits (10–50%) required to discover all the sources in the simulation. Capture-Recapture is a promising addition to the toolbox of time domain astronomy, and methods implemented in R by the biostats community can be readily called from within python. |
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