甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震重灾区房屋类型与致死的关系研究

地震造成人员死亡主要是由房屋毁坏和次生灾害引起的。2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县发生MS6.6地震,造成95人死亡、2014人受伤,灾区民房破坏严重,重灾区房屋毁坏比达36.59%;同时震前不断降雨和地震的耦合作用,诱发大量滑坡、崩塌等地质灾害,给灾区人民生命财产带来严重损失。本文通过对灾区不同类型结构房屋破坏情况、常驻人口、死亡人数、死亡地点及原因、地形地貌和地质灾害的调研,获得大量准确的基础资料;分析得到这次地震人员死亡特点和重灾区不同类型结构房屋的破坏比;利用重灾区9个行政村死亡人数和房屋毁坏比数据,进行多元线性回归拟合,得出房屋毁坏比与人员致死性关系,同时运用不同烈度区内房屋毁坏比数据和人口数据进行验证。结果表明:用此关系计算得到的总死亡人数比实际死亡人数多16人,总误差率为17.02%。

Relation between Different Building Types and Personnel Death in theHeavy Disaster Area of the Minxian-Zhangxian MS 6.6 Earthquake

Ninety-five people were killed and 2014 people were injured in the Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 earthquake that occurred on July 22, 2013. Houses in rural areas were severely damaged. The damage ratio of houses in heavy disaster areas was more than 36.59%. The combined effect of the earthquake and continuous rain induced a large number of landslides, collapses, and other geological disasters, which resulted in serious losses of life and property in the disaster area. In this study, a considerable amount of basic data are obtained through the investigation of degree of damage for different building types, population, number of deaths, cause of death, topography, and geological hazards in the disaster area. Further, the causes of death attributed to the earthquake and the damage ratio of different building types are obtained through analysis. Multiple linear regression fitting is used to obtain the relation between death toll data and the damage ratio of houses in nine administrative villages in the heavily impacted disaster area. The relation is validated using similar data for the population and the damage ratio of houses but from different intensity areas. The results show that the total death toll calculated using this method is 16 more than the actual one with a total error rate of 17.02%.