华中地区2030年前气温和降水量变化预估

根据区域气候模式对华中地区1961-1990年和2001-2030年的逐月平均气温和降水量的模拟值（0.5°×0.5°经纬度格点，A2情景），以1961-1990年为基准，计算并分析了该区域未来30 a（2001-2030年）的年、季平均气温和降水量的变化趋势。对气温变化而言，未来30 a华中地区年平均气温呈上升趋势，平均升温0.3℃，东部增温大于西部；春、夏季平均气温上升，分别为0.1～1.3℃、0.8～2.2℃；秋季北部地区气温下降，南部地区气温升高；冬季平均气温下降0.0～1.0℃。就降水而言，未来30 a华中地区年平均降水量大部分地区呈减少趋势，空间分布有南增北减的特点；春、夏、冬季平均降水量大部分地区减少，冬季平均降水量的减幅要大于春、夏季；秋季大部分地区平均降水量增加。

Projection of Changes in Temperature and Precipitation over Central China from 2001 to 2030

Using the monthly mean temperature, precipitation at a grid resolution of 0.5°×0.5° in Central China during 1961-1990 and 2001-2030 simulated by regional climate model of National Climate Center under SRES A2, and the actual monthly mean temperature, precipitation during 1961-1990 in all basic and standard stations in the area, the climate change tendency was estimated and analyzed for the first 30 years of the 21st century. The results show that, relative to the period 1961-1990, annual mean temperature during 2001-2030 in Central China generally has a warming tendency of 0.3℃, and it will increase more quickly in the east than in the west of the area. The annual precipitation in Central China mostly presents a decreasing tendency, but an increasing tendency in the south part. The mean temperature will increase by 0.1-1.3℃ and 0.8-2.2℃ in spring and summer, respectively, decrease in the north and increase in the south in autumn, and decrease by 0.0-1.0℃ in winter. In most areas of Central China, precipitation will decease in spring, summer and winter, especially in winter, and increase in autumn.