基于社会网络分析的东南亚地缘关系研究

在全球化背景下,考察国家间地缘关系需将其置于宏观地缘格局中。安全等传统地缘政治因素仍对世界格局的变化起着重要推动作用,不可忽视。鉴于此,本文构建了地缘系统视角下地缘关系分析框架,结合社会网络分析方法,定量研究冷战后东南亚地缘系统内地缘经济和地缘政治（安全）关系的整体与结构特征,测度系统内各国在经济和安全上的权力特征以及依赖关系,并初步探索东南亚地缘政治（安全）依赖关系形成机制。结果显示：① 冷战后东南亚地缘系统内对东南亚10国地缘经济权力总和最高国家的转移路径是从日本到美国再到中国;对东南亚10国地缘政治（安全）权力总和最高的国家始终是美国,2005年以后中国跃居至第二位,但与美国还有明显差距。在地缘经济领域,东南亚国家总体上对中国的依赖水平最高;在地缘政治（安全）领域,东南亚各国对美国及其盟友英、法、德等国的依赖较高,中俄也不可忽视;“东南亚在经济上靠中国、安全上靠美国”的地缘政治论述可见一斑。② 国家实力差异是产生安全依赖关系的根本动力;国家间地理距离可以调节安全依赖的具体方向;国家的政治地理属性差异是形成安全依赖和影响安全依赖程度的重要条件。

A social-network-based study on geo-relations in Southeast Asia

In the context of globalization, geopolitical relationships should be considered under the general geo-structure. Traditional geopolitical factors such as security are still the indispensable drivers of global patterns. In this study, social network analysis was used to construct an analysis framework from the perspective of a geo-system. Using this framework, we investigated the holistic and structural characteristics of the geo-economic and geopolitical relationships in Southeast Asian geo-system, quantified the power and reliance degrees of each country in terms of geo-economics and geopolitics (security), and also explored the potential mechanisms of security reliance. The results show that: (1) Since the end of the Cold War, the United States (US) replaced Japan as the country that exerted the strongest geo-economic influence on Southeast Asian countries, and then was supplanted by China. In terms of geopolitics, the United States is the most influential country over Southeast Asia. Although China has taken the second seat since 2005, its geopolitical influence is still far behind that of the US. Overall, from a geo-economic perspective, Southeast Asian countries seem to be more dependent on China than on other countries, while geopolitically (i.e., security) they rely mostly on the US and its traditional allies, including the United Kingdom, France and Germany. There is enough evidence to support the well-known adage that "Southeast Asia relies on China in economy, but on US in security". (2) Differences in national power are the essential drivers of security reliance. The specific direction of security reliance is primarily controlled by the geographic distance between countries. In addition, differences in political geographic traits are also essential factors that shape security reliance.