1895-2016年全球海运网络中的海峡两岸港口运输联系变化

台湾地区与中国大陆隔海相望,海上运输是两岸间货物往来的最主要方式。受国际政治和贸易模式的影响,从19世纪中后期以来,两岸港口运输联系变化剧烈。利用劳合社（Lloyd's）1895-2016年两岸港口间航线的O-D数据,从国家层面和全球层面研究海峡两岸港口运输联系的变化。主要结论为：① 近代开埠至割让给日本之前,台湾地区与大陆的海运联系紧密,厦门港是台湾地区最重要的中转港;日据之后,台湾地区成为日本的原料来源地和商品销售地,台湾地区—日本—中国大陆形成三角运输联系;两岸对峙后,两岸港口运输联系切断,台湾地区—美国—日本形成三角贸易网络;1979年后,香港港成为两岸运输联系的最重要中转港,两岸直航后,台湾地区与大陆间的港口运输联系在广度和深度上不断拓展。② 台湾地区区位优势明显,但由于是海岛,陆向腹地狭小,因此充分利用区位优势和地缘优势,把区域经济增长中心作为自身的海向腹地,以形成紧密的海上运输联系是台湾地区经济持续发展的关键。改善与中国大陆之间的关系、分享中国大陆发展的机遇、推动海峡两岸的港口运输联系是台湾地区的“天时”与“人和”。

Changes of ports' connection across the Taiwan Straits in the global maritime network (1895-2016)

Taiwan and the Chinese mainland face each other across the sea, and maritime transport is the most important means for the exchange of goods between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits. Affected by international politics and trade patterns, since the middle and late 19th century, the transportation links between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits have changed dramatically. Using the O-D data of vessels transiting between ports from the Lloyd's database between 1895 and 2008, we studied the changes in the transport links between ports on both sides of the Taiwan Straits at the national and global scales. The analysis concludes as follows: (1) Since before the beginning of modern times until Taiwan was ceded to Japan, Taiwan and the Chinese mainland had island-land relations, and Xiamen Port was the most important transit port to Taiwan. After the Japanese occupation, Taiwan became Japan's source of raw materials and a location in which to sell Japan's goods, and Taiwan, Japan, and the Chinese mainland were forming triangular transportation links. After the confrontation between the two sides of the strait, the United States intervened in the Taiwan Straits, and the transportation links between the ports on both sides of the Taiwan Straits were cut off. Taiwan, the United States, and Japan formed a triangular trade network. After 1979, Hong Kong Port became the most important transit port for cross-strait transport links. After direct flights across the Taiwan Straits were instituted, the port transportation links between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland continued to expand in breadth and depth. (2) Taiwan has obvious advantages in location, but because it is an island, the hinterland is narrow. Therefore, making full use of regional and geopolitical advantages, using the regional economic growth centre as its own foreland and forming a close sea transportation link is key to Taiwan's sustained economic development. Improving relations with the mainland, sharing in opportunities for the development of the mainland, and promoting the transport links between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits are opportunities for Taiwan.