环境规制、地方保护与中国污染密集型产业布局

污染密集型产业在促进区域经济增长的同时会对区域生态环境带来巨大威胁,其发展布局会受到地方保护和环境规制的双重影响。1980-2014年中国污染密集型产业的发展经历了缓慢增长、快速扩张和结构转型3个阶段,总体呈现“分散—集中—分散”的空间特征,中部省份是现阶段承接污染密集型产业转移的主要地区。通过建立区域属性模型、区域—产业交互项模型,定量分析环境规制、地方保护对污染密集型产业布局空间变化的影响,检验“污染避难所假说”和“波特假说”,发现环境规制和地方保护已成为污染密集型产业布局的重要影响因素,但存在显著的产业异质性和区域差异性;污染程度高的产业易受到环境规制的影响;相比高税收产业,高国有比重的产业更易受到地方的保护;环境规制和地方保护作为两种相反的力量,彼此之间相互抑制;环境规制的作用在东部地区比较突出,而中、西部地区地方保护的作用更为明显。为防止中西部地区成为污染密集型产业的“避难所”,应因地因时制宜制定差异化政策,促进经济与环境保护的协调发展。

Environmental regulation,local protection and the spatial distribution of pollution-intensive industries in China

Pollution-intensive industries can promote regional economic growth. They also pose a great threat to regional environmental system. Polluting industries may be protected by regional policies due to their contribution to economic growth, but the local governments may also impose some restrictions and controls on them by means of the environmental regulations. From 1980 to 2014, the development period of pollution-intensive industries in China can be divided into three stages: slow growth, rapid expansion, and structural transition. The spatial distribution of pollution industries changed from dispersal to concentration and then to decentralization. The central provinces such as Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi have become the major areas of pollution-intensive industries transfer. By establishing the regional attribute model and the regional-industrial interaction model, this paper quantitatively analyzes the influence of environmental regulation and local protection on the spatial distribution of the pollution-intensive industries in China during 2001-2014, and tests whether there exist the pollution haven hypothesis and the Porter hypothesis. Environmental regulation and local protection are important factors that influence the spatial distribution of polluting industries, but there exists obvious industrial and regional heterogeneity. Industries with a high degree of pollution are more likely to be affected by environmental regulations, and industries with high share of state ownership are more likely to be protected by local governments. Environmental regulation and local protection are two opposite forces, which have the effect of mutual inhibition and weakening. The roles of environmental regulation and local protection in coastal and inland areas have significant differences. The effect of environmental regulation is more prominent in eastern China, while that of local protection in central and western China is more significant. In order to prevent the central and western regions from being the "pollution haven" and to realize the win-win between economic growth and environmental protection, a differentiated policy should be formulated according to local conditions and the development stage.