土地变化模型方法综述

土地系统变化长期以来不仅是地理学研究热点,也是资源环境经济学、生态学、城市规划等多学科领域关注的主题。构建模型模拟土地变化能够促进理解人地相互作用机制,模拟结果可为土地资源优化与资源环境政策制定提供依据。不同研究者基于不同学科理论、应用多种方法构建土地变化模型,模型从早期关注自然覆被类型变化发展到对人类决策行为的刻画,从统计方法发展到更突出空间分布的元胞自动机方法,以及更聚焦土地变化过程的经济学方法和多主体方法。未来土地变化模型发展方向为：在多尺度进行多方法耦合,对土地变化过程进行更为明晰地刻画,将土地变化模型与其他地球系统模型耦合等方面,进一步能够促进解释复杂人地系统,并推进模型在决策支持层面的应用。

Review on land change modeling approaches

Land change has long been the research hot-spot of geography, and is also the focus of multiple disciplines including resource and environment economics, ecology, and urban planning. Land change models and simulations are an effective approach for understanding the mechanism of human-environment interactions. The modeling results are also valuable for the government to make resource management and environmental policies. Researchers of different fields have applied various approaches based on their theories to develop land change models. Attention has evolved from modeling land cover types to representation of human decision-making behaviors. The methods have shifted from statistical to cellular automata that can better characterize spatial patterns, and to economic methods and agent-based methods that can better represent the processes and mechanisms of land change. Future land change models should focus coupling multiple methods cross scales. Land change processes should be better represented. The complexity of the human-environment system can be better explained by a combination of land change models and other earth system models. The application of models to support policymaking also needs more attention.