避难国政策影响下的欧洲难民危机时空格局及迁移优化

欧洲是“一带一路”倡议的重点覆盖地域,是亚欧大陆经济走廊的重要组成,维护其地区安全稳定,排除干扰中欧两大市场合作互联的潜在安全隐患,对于“一带一路”倡议的稳固推进十分必要。基于地理学视角,考虑难民安置政策因素,采用灰色关联分析、层次分析、多目标规划等方法对2015-2017年欧洲难民危机时空演变过程及迁移格局优化进行分析。① 时空演化分析显示难民集中于2015年登陆欧洲,欧洲各国登陆难民、接收难民数量极化突出,双重失衡;② 灰色关联分析显示难民迁移决策具有福利优先、收入优先的导向,各国难民政策调整为迁移决策带来不确定性,既有迁移格局难以长期维持;③ 层次分析显示北欧西欧国家难民宜居性较高,东欧南欧国家宜居性相对较差,部分避难国承担安置难民数量与其宜居性不符;④ 多目标规划的优化格局显示,由于欧洲各国忽视全球化背景致使难民政策指向错误,迁移网络更加混乱失衡,优化后来自土耳其、乌克兰的难民迁移趋势向西欧集中,来自希腊、匈牙利的难民迁移趋势在空间上更加平均分散,来自意大利的难民迁移趋势向西欧南欧呈扇形分散。优化后迁移格局有助于缓解地区安全局势、为“一带一路”建设创造良好的政治、经济环境,平衡劳动力资源配置,为建设投资提供潜在市场。最后在研究结果的基础上提出若干协同合作调整难民迁移格局的危机缓解措施。

The spatial-temporal pattern and optimization of the resettlement of refugees entering Europe in the context of refugee policies

Europe is one of the important regions of 'the Belt and Road Initiative', playing both a significant role as an economic corridor connecting Asia and as an endpoint. In the context of globalization, the Belt and Road Initiative as a form of regional economic integration is driven by improvements in transportation and information technologies. Regional economic integration also weakens the borders among nation-states. However, low-income developing countries are pushed to a more marginal economic position and are deprived of a political voice as regional economic integration plays out in the current world economy. These trends are also playing a role in the rapid spread of conflicts at the global scale, one manifestation of which is the refugee crisis in Europe. Consequently, it is necessary to address the impacts of the refugee crisis in Europe and eliminate potential risks in the economic corridors under the Belt and Road Initiative. Taking into account the perspective of geography and refugee settlement policies of European countries, this paper analyzed the spatial-temporal patterns and optimized the migration routes and resettlement of the refugees arriving in Europe from 2015 to 2017 by conducting gray relational analysis, a hierarchical analysis and multi-objective programming. According to the spatial and temporal evolution analysis, refugees migrating to Europe mainly landed in 2015. Meanwhile, the number of landed refugees accepted by European countries were extremely polarized and uneven. The results of the gray relational analysis showed that the decision-making of resettlement of refugees was highly related to welfare policies and income level in the country of destination. However, the changes in refugee policy in various countries had an uncertain impact on the decision-making process of refugees, which also affected the spatial pattern of resettlement of refugees. The results of the hierarchical analysis showed that the Nordic and western European countries were more attractive for refugees, while the livability of the eastern and southern European countries was relatively poor. The number of refugees accepted by most European countries did not match with their level of livability. The optimized pattern of multi-objective planning indicated the limitations of European refugee policy and the challenges of the existing migrating patterns in the context of globalization. The optimized results showed that the migration trend of refugees originally stranded in Turkey and Ukraine was to concentrate in western Europe, the migration trend of refugees originally stranded in Greece and Hungary showed a relatively equally dispersed pattern throughout Europe, and the migration trend of refugees originally stranded in Italy was dispersed in a sector-shape. The optimized migration pattern provides suggestions for policy making in relieving the deteriorating security in the region, balancing the allocation of labor and providing a potential market for investment in construction under the Belt and Road Initiative.