气候变化背景下1981-2010年中国玉米物候变化时空分异

基于中国玉米种植区内114个农气站1981-2010年的长序列物候观测数据,量化分析了玉米8个连续物候期的时空分异特征和相应的生长阶段长度变化规律。结果表明：1981-2010年间,玉米生育期内平均温度和有效积温(GDD）呈现增加趋势,降水量和日照时数呈现减少趋势。气候变化背景下,玉米物候期发生了显著变化。春玉米物候期以提前趋势为主,包括西北内陆玉米区春玉米、西南山地丘陵玉米区春玉米;夏玉米和春夏播玉米各物候期在不同区域均呈现推迟的趋势,西北内陆玉米区夏玉米各物候期推迟的幅度大于黄淮平原夏玉米各物候期推迟的幅度。玉米物候期的变化改变了相应生长阶段的长度,中国春/夏/春夏播玉米营养生长期（播种期—抽雄期）呈现不同程度的缩短趋势,而对应的生殖生长期（抽雄期—成熟期）呈现不同程度的延长趋势;春玉米生育期（播种期—成熟期）延长,夏/春夏播玉米生育期缩短。

Spatiotemporal variations in maize phenology of China under climate change from 1981 to 2010

Based on the long-term phenology observation data of 114 agro-meteorological stations in the maize growing areas of China, the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of 8 consecutive phenology periods and the corresponding phenological stages length were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that the average temperature and GDD (Growing degree days) during the growing seasons from 1981-2010 showed an increasing trend, and the precipitation and sunshine duration showed a decreasing trend in national scale. The maize phenology has changed significantly under the climate change background：Spring maize phenology was mainly advanced, especially in Northwest inland and Southwest mountain hills maize zone. While summer maize and spring-summer maize phenology were all delayed, and the delay trend of summer maize in the Northwest inland changed more than that in the Huanghuai plain. The variations of maize phenology changed the corresponding phenological stages length, the length of vegetative growth period (days from sowing date to tasseling date) of spring/summer/spring-summer maize all showed a trend of shorten in different degrees, and the corresponding reproductive growth period (days from tasseling date to mature date) showed a trend of extension. The whole growth period (days from sowing date to mature date) of spring maize were prolonged, but the whole growth period of summer/spring-summer maize shortened.