气候变化和人类活动对南方红壤丘陵区森林生态系统影响模拟研究——以江西泰和县为例

在全球气候变化和人类活动的影响下,森林生态系统结构、功能以及空间格局都将发生不同程度的变化。明晰景观尺度上未来森林的动态变化,对森林可持续发展具有重要意义。选择江西省泰和县为研究区,综合利用土地利用模型（CA-Markov）和森林景观动态模型（LANDIS-II）,并结合生态系统过程模型（PnET-II）,模拟气候变化、土地利用、采伐以及综合情景下未来40年（2010-2050年）阔叶林、针叶林的面积及生物量变化。结果表明：① 气候变化对森林面积影响较小,采伐使森林面积显著减少,土地利用变化使森林面积的变化更加剧烈;② 针叶林和阔叶林对不同干扰方式的响应表现出较强差异,针叶林对采伐的响应更加剧烈;③ 多模型综合模拟方法有助于区域森林管理,为南方红壤丘陵区森林结构优化和功能提升提供科学建议。

Simulating the effect of climate change and human activities on the forest ecosystem in the hilly red soil region of southern China: A case study in Taihe county,Jiangxi province

The forest ecosystem structure, function, succession process and spatial pattern will change accordingly due to global climate change and anthropogenic disturbances. It is significant to explore dynamic change in forest landscape for the sustainable development of forest in the near future. Our study area is Taihe county of Jiangxi province. We combined a land-use change model (CA-Markov model), an ecosystem process model (PnET- II), and a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate the change in forest area, aboveground biomass under climate change, land use, harvest and the combined scenario for the period 2010-2050. The results show that: (1) Climate change has less impact on forest area in the study area. The forest area loss is reduced by the harvest treatment, and land use change leads to a more dramatic change in forest area. (2) The response of the coniferous forest to various disturbances show a difference compared to the broad-leaved forest. The coniferous forest responds more strongly to the harvest. (3) The method of coupling multiple model is benefit for the regional forest management. The simulation results can help to make some suggestions for improving and optimizing plantation structure and function in the hilly red soil region of southern China.