中国大陆省际旅游效率时空演化及其俱乐部趋同研究

旅游产业的提质增效是新常态下旅游学科研究的重要问题之一。利用中国大陆1997-2015年省际旅游发展相关数据,综合修正的DEA模型、空间马尔科夫链、脉冲响应模型,以及俱乐部趋同理论,在对省际旅游效率进行定量测算的基础上,分析其时空演化趋势及机理。主要结论为：1997-2015年中国大陆省际旅游效率演化具有显著的地带特征：东部地区旅游经济增长的集约化程度较高,西部地区旅游经济增长的粗放型程度较高;各项旅游效率水平转移在地理空间上往往受到邻域地区旅游效率的影响。考虑空间因素后,各项旅游效率的空间转移更加活跃,但基本格局没有发生变化：各项效率均具有较高的稳定性,尤其是规模效率;空间马尔科夫链分析结果表明：旅游效率的时空演化一定程度上导致了俱乐部趋同效应,中国大陆省际旅游发展效率存在着“近朱者赤、近墨者黑”现象。省际旅游效率的俱乐部趋同客观上使得旅游发展维持着一种“稳定”状态,不利于旅游效率的提升,未来的旅游合作必须进一步突破地理区位的限制。

Spatiotemporal evolution of provincial tourism efficiency and its club convergence in the Chinese Mainland

The improvement of quality and efficiency of tourism industry is one of the most important tourism issues under China's new normal economy. Based on the data of tourism development and related data of the Chinese mainland from 1997 to 2015, and comprehensively using the methods of modified data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, spatial Markov chain, impulse response model, and club convergence theory and quantitative calculation of tourism efficiency, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and mechanism of tourism efficiency in the Chinese mainland. The results indicate that: provincial tourism efficiency showed strong regional characteristics. The tourism economy growth was highly intensive in the eastern area, while it was highly extensive in the western region. The transfer of tourism efficiency is always affected by the tourism efficiency of neighboring regions. The spatial transfer of tourism efficiency is more active, but the basic pattern has not changed after considering the spatial factors. Item efficiency showed high stability, especially the scale efficiency. The spatiotemporal evolution of tourism efficiency led to the effect of club convergence to some degree—a phenomenon of "one takes the behavior of one's company." Club convergence of provincial tourism efficiency objectively makes the tourism development "stable"; however, it is not conducive to efficiency improvement. Tourism development cooperation must break through the geographical restrictions in the future.